The Long 18th Century

  The  Kondratiev Wave  is an important element of  World-Systems Theory . The graphic above is taken from  Andreas Goldschmidt  and gives historical specifics for technological cycles. Goldschmidt's formulation allows for the idea to be tested (one of the models I always test), is partially consistent with economic Growth theory (particularly if we do not assume a functional form for exogenous disembodied technological change in the  Solow-Swan Model ) and I can present some examples. The Iranian Economy prior to 1979  and associated  Tech Bubble .  

I've just started watching The American Revolution , a Ken Burns film (trailer above). I hope that students at all levels who are studying the "US Origin Story" have a chance to watch the film. It is certainly more entertaining, interesting and informative than any text books I read either in Grade School or High School. Inexplicably, I didn't take a course in college-level American history. Now is my chance (and anyone who feels the same way) to catch up by viewing the film streaming on YouTube. In response, I can bring my brick to the wall by documentation my statistical models of the period of the Long 18th Century, You run the models yourself starting with the W18 World System Model here .  

  The Long Eighteenth Century, as noted by Wikipedia ( here ), is: ...a phrase used by many British historians to cover a more  natural  historical period than the simple use of the standard calendar definition of the  eighteenth century  (1 January 1701 to 31 December 1800). They expand the century to include larger British and Western European historical movements, with their subsequent "long" 18th century typically running from the  Glorious Revolution  and the beginning of the  Nine Years' War  in 1688 to the end of the  Napoleonic Wars  in 1815 . In this blog, I will expand the periodization to include the entire World-System. Quantitative State Space models for World-System countries during this period are available here  (for example, the W18 model). Periodization For the Quantitative Historian, selecting a time period over which to display statistical data or estimate models is an interesting problem with no s...

  State Space Model Estimation The Measurement Matrix for the  state space models  was constructed using  Principal Components Analysis  with  standardized  data from the  World Development Indicators . The statistical analysis was conducted in an extension of the  dse package . The package is currently supported by an online portal ( here ) and can be downloaded, with the R-programming language, for any personal computer  here .  Code for the state space  Dynamic Component models (DCMs)  is available on my Google drive ( here ) and referenced in each post. Atlanta Fed Economy Now My approach to forecasting is similar to the  EconomyNow model used by the Atlanta Federal Reserve . Since the new Republican Administration is signaling that they would like to eliminate the Federal Reserve, the app might well not be available in the future. While the app is still available, there have been some interesting development...